González Laya: "Trump has lost the battle against the international economy."

Arancha González Laya (Tolosa, 1969), former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs, warns that both the trade war launched by Trump and the conflict in Gaza and Ukraine "are three manifestations of a geopolitical disruption" that must be stopped. She is one of the foremost experts on trade policy, having worked at the WTO and the UN.

Could the EU sanctions on Meta and Apple complicate tariff negotiations with the US?

Europe has to enforce its laws, and if it doesn't, it's not credible.

Meta said it was a kind of hidden tariff.

Of course, because they don't want regulation, but Europe has regulation. We Europeans have been the ones saying from the beginning that there were issues that were non-negotiable. And whoever doesn't like it should stop operating in Europe.

Has Europe been quick to respond to tariffs?

Europe has sought to maintain two fundamental issues above all else. The first is European unity, because, after all, Europe is strong if it has this unity. And second, firmness. Unity and firmness, but with responsibility. We are playing with the economy and the economies of our citizens.

Duty The worst thing would be for the US and China to reach an agreement, with us as the adjustment variable.

What do you mean by responsibility? Not to engage in tariff escalation like China has?

Yes, that's exactly what I mean. Not to jump into a quick answer. Europe has been, I think, clever. It has let the market, and especially the bond markets, do the dirty work.

As?

When the interest rate on US Treasury bonds begins to rise, that's the warning sign that forces the US president to pause his tariffs.

But tariffs of 10% are still in place.

Donald Trump has lost the battle against the international economy. Globalization has won. That doesn't mean he doesn't still have the capacity to cause damage to his economy and the economies of others. And that's why we're now in this kind of impasse, where he needs to emerge victorious from the tunnel he's dug himself into. We have to help him win, even though he's already lost.

A wounded enemy is always more dangerous.

Yes, we're going to have to negotiate, knowing full well that what we need is to minimize, if not eliminate, this entire battery of measures that have been adopted.

Is there any permanent damage to the economy yet?

There is a side effect: a loss of confidence among economic operators, including in the United States.

Do you think Europe and Spain should get closer to China?

I believe what we need is a functional relationship with China based on our interests. Because the worst thing that could happen to us is for the United States and China to reach an agreement and for us to become the adjusting variable.

Who wins from this trade war?

The US imbalances are imbalances related to the US economy's ability to save, which also has a lot to do with its own fiscal policies. In other words, what we cannot accept is that the United States seeks to appropriate the benefits of globalization and externalize its inability to manage its costs.

Does Trump really want to solve his trade deficit problem?

I wouldn't define the problem as the trade deficit; I would rather define it as inequality in the American economy. The American economy has doubled in size since 1989. But in this period, the wealthiest 1% has quadrupled, and the bottom 50% has seen their wealth increase by 20%. If you add to that the inflation shock of the last three years, you can understand why there is great public discontent in the United States.

What lessons can be learned from what is happening?

We're experiencing a first-year populist situation. And I think it would also be interesting to learn some lessons for our parish, the European Union. For example, the importance of social policies.

And regarding the two major wars currently raging in the world, are they linked to the tariff crisis?

The trade war, like the war in Gaza or the war in Ukraine, are three manifestations of a geopolitical disruption with three fundamental axes. These are not isolated events. First, the abandonment of a world order governed by rules, by commitments, by treaties. Second, a rupture of the transatlantic bond. And we are beginning to see this, to glimpse it and what it will mean, but it is just the beginning. And third, let us not forget that behind all this there is also a rupture in a certain ideological consensus on the value of democracy, of checks and balances, of individual freedoms, of the rule of law, of the value of science.

Should we spend more on defense or not?

We undoubtedly need to spend more on defense because the risks are much higher today and because the security guarantee we had, which was the transatlantic alliance, didn't work.

And who do we want to protect ourselves from?

Of all those who attack us today.

Who are they?

Russia, clearly. And if you're in Spain, it's not just Russia. Let's look south. Let's look at what's happening in the Sahel.